2017 San Diego County Real Estate Market Review

There is an ongoing and undeniable national housing shortage. Year-over-year inventory levels have been down in most markets for several years now, and that trend is expected to persist in 2018. Consumers are still purchasing for the first time and relocating to other, presumably more ideal homes.
Having the financial ability to make a move clearly seems feasible to many eager buyers amidst a healthy economy, whether life events such as marriage, children, employment change or desirable downsizing is the reason for moving.

There are further positive signs on the horizon, as builder confidence has improved and construction job gains are measurably higher. It will still take more effort than a lone year can provide for building activity to reach a needed level for inventory balance, but a step in the right direction is welcome.

More sellers should feel ready and willing to list in 2018. Economic indicators such as unemployment rates and consumer confidence are in an improved state, and sellers currently hold the keys in the buyer-seller relationship. This does not mean that sellers can set their price and watch the offers roll in. On the contrary, buyers will be poised to test prevailing price points, particularly in markets where home
price increases are outpacing wage growth and in light of the fact that mortgage rates are expected to increase further in 2018.

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Carmel Valley, Poway, Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos, and Scripps Ranch housing stats January 2018

Carmel Valley, Poway, Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos, Scripps Ranch January 2018 Numbers by Zip Code

Carmel Valley, Poway, Rancho Bernardo, Rancho Penasquitos, and Scripps Ranch
Listings, Sales, Days on Market and more broken out by zip code.

Use the ‘Pop-Out’ to view report or the link to download.

Download (Jan-2018-RB-RP-CV-SR-POW.pdf)

Monthly Market Overview North San Diego County

The number of homes for sale, days on market and months of supply were all down in year-over-year comparisons in a majority of the country for the entirety of 2017, as was housing affordability. And although total sales volumes were mixed, prices were consistently up in most markets. Buyers may not benefit from higher prices, but sellers do, and there should be more listing activity by more confident sellers in 2018. At least that would be the most viable prediction for an economic landscape pointing toward improved conditions for sellers.

Closed Sales decreased 15.9 percent for Detached homes and 8.4 percent for Attached homes.

Pending Sales decreased 4.2 percent for Detached homes but increased 6.0 percent for Attached homes.

The Median Sales Price was up 8.9 percent to $685,000 for Detached homes and 15.3 percent to $449,700 for Attached homes.

Days on Market decreased 26.5 percent for Detached homes and 19.4 percent for Attached homes.

Supply decreased 30.0 percent for Detached homes and 20.0 percent for Attached homes.

Unemployment rates have remained low throughout 2017, and wages have shown improvement, though not always to levels that match home price increases. Yet housing demand remained incredibly strong in 2017, even in the face of higher mortgage rates that are likely to increase further in 2018.

Home building and selling professionals are both cautiously optimistic for the year ahead. Housing and economic indicators give reason for this optimism, with or without new federal tax legislation.

Download (Dec-2017-Monthly.pdf)

New life for one of Oceanside’s oldest buildings

A new life is about to begin for one of Oceanside’s oldest buildings, a brick structure on Pier View Way that opened as a hardware store in 1888, the same year the city was incorporated.

Now known as the Schuyler Building for its original owner, John Schuyler, the hardware store once sold tools and supplies essential to the rapidly growing region. It later served as a grocery store and a boarding house, among other uses. For the past 30 years or longer, it had a laundry on the first floor and the upper floors were mostly vacant and used for storage.

Now the new owner, Tom Aldrich, plans to open a restaurant on the first floor, a 10-room boutique hotel on the second and third floors, and a public outdoor bar on the roof, with views of the surrounding city and the Pacific Ocean a few blocks away.

“Maybe we’ll call it The 1888 Hotel,” Aldrich said. “We want to keep with the historical aspect of it, if we can.”

He’s already gutted the interior of the building and stripped away the stucco that was applied to the brick exterior in the 1930s. That revealed the original signs painted high up on the walls to advertise “Hardware, Stoves, Crockery and Bicycles,” and another one for “Rooms.” On the eastern side facing the alley, they uncovered a smaller sign that says “Contreras and Gelpi, cash grocers.”

“The significance of this building is that it’s been many things,” said Oceanside historian John Daley, who sometimes leads walking tours of notable downtown sites.

“It’s adjusted to the times,” Daley said. “There’s nothing more appealing than for it to be a boutique hotel in today’s world.”

Read the rest HERE. 

San Diego luxury housing could see a boost under tax plan

Major changes to the tax code approved Wednesday by Congress could mean luxury homes in San Diego County will have more buyers, or at the least, see no noticeable change in sales.

The new tax plan reduces the mortgage interest deduction on new loans up to $750,000, down from $1 million. But, it also significantly reduces the corporate tax rate — meaning well-heeled people with holdings in several companies could have some extra money to spend.

Some real estate agents who sell high-end properties were optimistic after the tax vote Wednesday, especially because they said affluent buyers see real estate as a strong investment.

“You’re going to have wealthy people getting dividends, buybacks, and a lot of money to buy that second or third property,” said Brett Dickinson, a Pacific Sotheby’s International Realty agent. “Now you have excess money that you weren’t really counting on.”

There have been 127 homes that have sold for more than $4 million this year in San Diego County as of Dec. 15, said Reports on Housing, up from 93 during the same time last year. Home sales from $2 million to $4 million had the biggest percentage increase in sales, with 712 sales so far this year up from 471 in 2016.

Steven Thomas, chief economist at Reports on Housing, said he wasn’t so sure the tax change would be a windfall for the luxury market. Instead, he said it could simply keep everything about the same because changes to state and local taxes could hurt prosperous Californians.

“It is hard to surmise what it is going to mean to each individual person,” he said. “At the end of the day, we have a hot market. We are selling more and more luxury homes than ever before.”

Thomas said the people in the cut-off range could be most affected. For instance, he said those with a $900,000 mortgage get to deduct the interest on all of it, but if they try to move up to a $1.2 million house after the tax changes, they would lose $150,000 of deductible interest.

Most San Diego buyers do not need to worry about the deduction. The median home price was $529,750 in October and most buyers put 10 to 20 percent down. Even after the tax changes, with 20 percent down, the entire interest of a home costing $937,500 could be deducted.

From January to October, 8.2 percent of mortgages (including purchase and refinance loans) were more than $750,000, CoreLogic said. That was up 6.3 percent from all of 2016.

Read the rest HERE.